Fewer Americans are packing boxes and changing addresses — mobility has hit record lows, reshaping real estate dynamics nationwide.
📉 Why Has U.S. Mobility Hit Historic Lows?
Only 8.4% of Americans moved in 2023, the lowest on record — and half the rate of the 1980s (17%). This marks a dramatic shift in how Americans live, work, and build wealth.
1985
~17%
High job mobility, affordable housing
2000
~13%
Dot-com boom & suburban expansion
2023
8.4%
High costs, aging population, remote work
Neal's Take:
Folks, mobility in the U.S. is collapsing.
What a huge change from the 80s!
🏦 Are Debt Markets Warming Up Too?
Yes — and faster than expected. CRE loan originations in H1 2025 jumped 30% YoY, while debt funds have already raised $20 billion + this year.
That parallel resurgence of equity and credit shows lenders are regaining faith in underlying fundamentals.
-
📈 Debt funds > $20 B raised in 2025
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🏗️ 30% increase in new loan volume
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💰 Spreads tightening across core lenders
Neal's Take:
“Debt is coming back too (Phew!!). When both equity and lending flows return, you know confidence is growing.”
🏰 Which Firms Are Driving the Comeback?
Mega-funds are taking center stage again — and the numbers are record-breaking.
Fund |
Sponsor |
2025 Close |
Focus |
| Strategic Real Estate Partners V | Brookfield | $16 B | Global diversified |
| Realty Partners X | Carlyle | $9 B | U.S. core + value-add |
| Opportunistic Fund XI | Blackstone | $8 B (est.) | Mixed asset focus |
Neal's Take:
“When titans drop tens of billions, it’s not playing small. These fundraises signal serious conviction that CRE has gotten over the hump.”
🧱 Which Property Types Are Attracting Smart Capital?
The focus has narrowed to sectors with strong fundamentals and structural demand. Of the top 20 CRE funds this year, 13 target multifamily and industrial assets — with data-center strategies gaining momentum. Office, retail, and hospitality remain largely excluded.
| Sector | % of Top Funds Targeting | 2025 Outlook |
| Multifamily | 40% | Rent stability + housing shortage |
| Industrial | 35% | E-commerce + onshoring demand |
| Data Centers | 15% | AI + cloud growth |
| Office | 5% (risk plays only) | Speculative recoveries |
| Retail/Hotels | <5% | Low institutional interest |
Neal's Take:
“The smart capital is only backing assets that make sense today. Office is out, industrial and multifamily are in — though office could be a contrarian play for high-risk investors.”
📊 Are Public REITs Re-Entering the Market?
Slowly but surely.
REITs issued $48 billion in unsecured bonds over the past 12 months, marking their most active period in three years.
While equity offerings remain modest, the reopening of capital-markets windows underscores renewed trust in CRE cash flows.
|
Category |
Latest 12 Months |
Trend |
|
Unsecured Bond Issuance |
$48 B |
Highest since 2022 |
|
Equity Offerings |
Climbing toward 3-yr high |
Cautious optimism |
Neal's Take:
“REITs had shut off the faucet. Now, they’re slowly turning it back on. Public capital is re-entering real estate.”
final thought
After a long freeze, capital is moving again through the CRE ecosystem — from mega-fund raises to bond issuances.
The renewed flow of both debt and equity suggests that investors see a bottom behind us and a new upcycle ahead.
In short: The money is back. Confidence is back. And for savvy investors, this is the moment to get ahead of the next wave.